Today, thirty years after the end of the war and the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) enters a new phase in its political trajectory – for the first time appointing a chief negotiator with the European Union, who will lead the negotiation process and represent BiH in the key stages of its EU integration. This moment, which in a more stable system would represent a shared national interest, unfolds in an environment of deep internal divisions, firmly rooted in the Dayton constitutional framework. Despite the symbolic significance of the European path, political differences among the representatives of the constituent peoples continue to shape the entire social and institutional life of BiH.
According to the Dayton Peace Agreement, Bosnia and Herzegovina consists of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republika Srpska, as two entities established by Dayton, with the special status of the Brčko District. Under Dayton, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina covers 51% of BiH’s territory and is organized as a federal unit composed of 10 cantons, where power is shared between Bosniaks and Croats, while the Republika Srpska occupies 49% of BiH’s territory and has a unified, centralized structure, and the Serbs hold the dominant legislative and executive power in Republika Srpska.
Bosnia and Herzegovina has a three-member Presidency, composed of one Serb, one Bosniak, and one Croat; the Serb is elected from the territory of Republika Srpska, while the Bosniak and Croat are elected from the territory of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
For three decades, the political dynamics in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been shaped by strongly intertwined and often contradictory interests of the constituent peoples. The contradictions are so pronounced that the current solution established by the Dayton Peace Agreement is realistically the only formula that can function here. The sooner we understand this, the faster we can turn toward the future. This is particularly important when we remember that the Dayton Peace Agreement was the last diplomatic solution in the world around which all major actors agreed: the USA, Russia, the EU, Turkey, Serbia, Croatia – indeed, everyone. After 1995, no conflict in the world has been formally resolved, or unilateral or temporary solutions remain in place. Thus, changing Dayton represents a Pandora’s box for both Bosnia and Herzegovina and the world. So, Serb representatives, primarily through the institutions of Republika Srpska, occasionally signal threats of secession, seeking to preserve their position as the “equal and respected party” and maximum entity autonomy, which the Dayton Peace Agreement clearly guarantees. Croats, on the other hand, insist on amending the electoral law to ensure that they directly elect the Croat member of the Presidency and, in the long term, advocate the creation of a third entity – a Croat entity. Since two members of the Presidency are elected from the territory of the Federation of BiH, Croats, as a numerically smaller group, often accuse Bosniaks of significantly influencing the election of the Croat member of the Presidency, creating an additional layer of political tension. Bosniak political representatives advocate complete territorial reorganization, including the abolition of entities and strong centralization of the state, with a reorganization of BiH into five regions or cantons. They also demand the abolition of entity voting and the veto power in the House of Peoples, considering that these currently allow for the blockage of processes contrary to the interests of any of the constituent peoples and hinder effective decision-making at the state level. Thus, we again arrive at the fact that the Dayton formula remains the only secure path for Bosnia and Herzegovina. As an example of the conflicting visions in Bosnia and Herzegovina, one can point to the day of the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement, November 21. This day is a public holiday in Republika Srpska, where it is officially observed, while in the Federation of BiH it is neither celebrated nor recognized as a holiday.
Today, thirty years after the end of the war and the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) enters a new phase in its political trajectory – for the first time appointing a chief negotiator with the European Union, who will lead the negotiation process and represent BiH in the key stages of its EU integration
In this political context, the International Community remains strongly present through the Office of the High Representative (OHR). The OHR continues to play a significant role in the functioning of the state. Although interventions by the High Representative have become less frequent in recent years, the mandate remains broad. A particularly notable example was the temporary suspension of the FBiH Constitution for 24 hours during the appointment of the Federation government, which was unprecedented in European legal practice and demonstrated BiH’s deep reliance on international supervision.
Thirty years after Dayton, Bosnia and Herzegovina stands in a dark corridor before the final doors of the EU and without the political will of the elites to fully integrate it as a member state. While it is often argued that the constitutional organization of the state is overly complex and represents an obstacle to EU integration, it is clear that BiH is not more complicated than Belgium or Switzerland, with one crucial difference: Belgium and Switzerland respect their Constitutions and do not engage in obstruction. How global geopolitical changes will affect this process and whether Bosnia and Herzegovina will be able to join the EU before other countries, such as Romania or Bulgaria, or become the subject of negotiations between the East and the West, remains to be seen over time.. Realistically, BiH’s negotiation process and accession could be completed within the next seven years, provided there is a serious consensus within the EU regarding further enlargement to the Balkans. There is a serious initiative in BiH to allow for faster accession and EU membership without voting rights in the European Parliament for the first ten years, which would be a significant exception to past practice. This would shorten the time, save energy, and retain a significant portion of the population that largely emigrates to Western European countries. Personally, I would have no objection to entering the EU under this condition.
An important step for BiH would be relocating the OHR office from Bosnia and Herzegovina to Brussels or Berlin and gradually closing the OHR entirely, for example, once BiH makes key advances toward the EU and adopts the five critical laws required for accession. According to the agreement, the chief negotiator will be a Serb, which places Banja Luka, as the administrative center of Republika Srpska, at the center of the negotiation process, providing an opportunity to compensate for the lost time spent attempting to change the Dayton constitutional structure. Finally, the Dayton Peace Agreement is a product of American diplomacy, and the USA will not allow it to be grossly violated or ignored.
Saša Čekrlija, full professor in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro, guest professor in PR China, holding a PhD in human sustainable development. He served as an advisor to H.E. Igor Crnadak, Minister of Foreign Affairs (mandate 2015–2019).
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